Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q4: Supplies remain tight amid robust consumer demand

23 December — Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly Q4 reports that tight global cattle and beef supplies continued in Q4 2014, although prices tempered from their Q3 highs. The US remains the major global driver, with import demand affecting prices and volumes for other countries. A big question heading into 2015 with such a finely balanced market is—if Australian export rates decrease and herds in Mexico and Canada continue to be run down by the US—whether a new norm has been reached for prices or whether they still...

December 2014

  1. Dec 18

    Rabobank Fertiliser Quarterly Q4: Cloudy with a chance of Spring demand

    As fertiliser supply appears set to outweigh demand globally, the forecast for Q1 2015 looks rather cloudy in terms of pricing according to Rabobank’s latest Fertliser Quarterly report. While Spring demand in the Northern Hemisphere will prevent prices from slipping significantly, Rabobank believes that lower farmer margins will make that farmers will be more prudent in fertiliser application, but a strong demand destruction is unlikely.
  2. Dec 17

    Rabobank Dairy Quarterly Q4: Dairy prices continue to fall

    International dairy markets continue to suffer from low prices according to Rabobank’s latest Dairy Quarterly report, though the rate of decline in the price of dairy commodities has slowed compared to that seen in Q3 2014. Exceptional milk production growth in export regions in the last nine months has outstripped weak local consumption, boosting supply in the international market and forcing prices to fall. However, low prices have succeeded in clearing huge volumes, with trade growth up 1...
  3. Dec 16

    Rabobank and Copa-Cogeca: storage capacity grain and oilseeds is not sufficient, investment in infrastructure needed

    New research carried out by Rabobank and Copa-Cogeca shows investment must be stepped up to improve infrastructures and storage capacity in the EU grain and oilseeds sector. This would maximize trade and ensure that EU livestock producers have good access to feed. Huge investment opportunities exist here and projects must be included in the 315 billion Junker investment plan, Copa-Cogeca said. Rabobank highlights that the EU grain and oilseeds supply chain offers many investment opportunities...
  4. Dec 10

    Rabobank Report: European frozen food sales to benefit from online grocery growth

    Decades of growth in the leading food distribution channels – supermarkets and hypermarkets - have come to an abrupt end in most markets over the past few years. Rabobank believes the rise of new channels; online, hard discount and convenience stores, will provide exciting growth opportunities for frozen food manufacturers. According to its latest report “Europe’s New Ice Age”, Rabobank foresees growth opportunities for the frozen food market, with a base case scenario where frozen food will ...

October 2014

  1. Oct 17

    Rabobank Report: Rapid intensification of Brazilian beef production to continue

    ​In response to rising global beef demand, Brazil is set to step up the rapid intensification of its beef production sector over the next ten years, enabling the industry to expand into higher-value export markets. According to its latest report “Beefing up in Brazil: Feedlots to Drive Industry Growth”, Rabobank expects Brazil’s feedlot capacity to more than double to 4.5 million head, turning out over 9 million head of fed cattle annually, and increasing fed beef production by approximately ...
  2. Oct 15

    Rabobank Pork Quarterly Report: Global Pork Market Cooling Down

    With the peak of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) outbreaks behind us, the global pork industry was faced with another challenge in the shape of the Russian import ban affecting EU, US, and Canadian markets and resulting in a rapidly changing trade landscape. According to Rabobank’s Pork Quarterly report, beneficiaries of the ban include Brazil which has seen a 30% per kilogramme price surge. Meanwhile the EU has seen its prices drop by 9% with no sign of recovery. Even taking...
  3. Oct 14

    Rabobank: Pricing Management to Optimise Wine Marketers Profits

    Pricing is becoming a greater challenge in the US market, according to Raboabnk’s Wine Quarterly Q4 report. Alongside improving sales volumes, the average price of wines sold in the US is rising, with the high-end of the market gaining share at the expense of lower priced wines. However, the US wine market is littered with once-profitable brands that were seduced by the short-term benefits of discounting and subsequently degraded their brand equity. In this increasingly challenging environmen...
  4. Oct 13

    Rabobank: Innovation is the essential ingredient to steer food and agriculture companies towards growth

    Global food & agribusiness (F&A) faces a remarkable conundrum. Right now the sector is struggling in an operating environment characterized by slow growth, soft demand and ample supply, which in combination are challenging business confidence. Yet the sector has a bright future. Over the longer term, growth in global F&A will be strong, driven by a powerful combination of population expansion, rising wealth and urbanisantion. So how can global F&A navigate its way through the sluggish operati...
  5. Oct 08

    Rabobank Sugar Quarterly Q3: Prices Dwindle under Weight of Stocks

    World market raw sugar prices declined abruptly during Q3 2014, as exportable stocks in Thailand and in Brazil weighed on the market, according to Rabobank’s Sugar Quarterly Q3 Report. March 2015 futures hit a low of USc/lb 15.6 in mid-September. As a result Rabobank anticipates a modest deficit on the cards for the global supply demand balance in 2014/15. This is expected to help redress—albeit gradually— the current imbalance between export availability and import demand. All commodity pric...
  6. Oct 07

    Rabobank: Opportunities to Tap into Turkey’s Vibrant Dairy Industry

    Turkey’s developing dairy market offers exciting opportunities in its emerging export industry with access to markets that western players have previously found difficult to service. According to Rabobank’s new report – Is Dairy Delight to be Found in Turkey – a growing urban population with an increasing level of disposable income and interest in value added products is also presenting an attractive and vibrant domestic dairy market. However, like any emerging region, there are challenges to...
  7. Oct 03

    Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q3: Russian bans won’t slow runaway markets

    Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly Q3 reports that global beef supply is in a tightening phase, with most key producing and export regions already experiencing record tight supplies. Further tightening is expected throughout the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. Russian import bans are unlikely to have a large impact on world beef markets with Brazil’s industry likely to be the ban’s largest beneficiary. The impact on major exporters, such as Australia and the US, will be minimal given increased impe...
  8. Oct 01

    Rabobank Dairy Quarterly Q3: Dairy enters a protracted bear market

    International and regional dairy markets are headed for 12 months of low prices according to Rabobank’s latest Dairy Quarterly report. The price of internationally traded dairy commodities has already fallen 30%-45% below February levels as a strong wave of milk from export regions collided with weaker Chinese buying and a Russian ban on import from key suppliers. With other importers unable to take up the slack, the market loosened considerably. While Rabobank believes that a bottom has been...

September 2014

  1. Sep 18

    Rabobank Spirits Quarterly Q3: Weighing the risks of “aye” and “nyet”

    Alcoholic beverages were the notable exception to the Russian sanctions but the looming threat that they may eventually be implemented weighs on the industry. On the other side of Europe, political tensions of a different kind are making Scotch producers nervous about a possible yes-vote for an independent Scotland. While some point to potential advantages for distillers from Scottish independence, the disadvantages, particularly in the short term, are numerous.
  2. Sep 16

    Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q3: Russian ban won’t derail bullish margin outlook

    The Russian ban will not derail the bullish outlook for poultry meat prices according to Rabobank’s Poultry Quarterly Q3 report. Strong fundamentals will promote further margin improvements in almost all regions of the world. While competing meat prices (i.e. beef, pork) are increasing, worldwide supply of chicken is relatively tight and provides a strong base for margin improvement, especially as grain prices are expected to see further declines in 2015.
  3. Sep 11

    Rabobank Fertiliser Quarterly Q3: Price support, but limited upside

    Fertiliser prices are slowly rising from the floor prices witnessed earlier this year, driven by both intentional and unintentional supply reductions. Seasonal demand, mostly from China, India and the US, is unlikely to cause any prolonged rise in prices for the fertiliser complex, while risk averse sentiment in global commodities is leading to reluctance towards stock accumulation across the fertiliser chains. Rabobank believes that bearish commodity prices will have limited impact on input ...
  4. Sep 10

    Rabobank: Tapping into potential growth of the Turkish Greenhouse Sector

    As one of the world’s largest greenhouse sectors, and with Europe’s highest per capita consumption of vegetables, Turkey is in a good position to capture further growth in future. According to a new report from Rabobank - The Greenhouse Sector in Turkey - expansion is mainly being driven by a rapidly developing domestic market and the country’s advantageous geographical position for exports, between the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Moreover, there is huge potential ...

August 2014

  1. Aug 28

    Rabobank: Salmon Industry Tackles Legal and Biological Limits

    After a brief period of strong supply expansion in 2014, the global salmon industry is reverting to the ’high-cycle scenario’ present since late 2012. This temporary, but unusually long-lasting, undersupply and high price environment is expected to remain for at least the coming two years. During this period, the salmon farming industry will focus strongly on biosecurity, sustainability, cost control, certification and technological innovations. We expect increased global demand to support th...
  2. Aug 12

    EU Isoglucose production to take off post-2017

    The future of the EU isoglucose market may look sweet, but it is also full of uncertainties. According to a new report from Rabobank – Will Starch Grains Beat Sugar? - the impending change in EU sugar policy in 2017 could trigger a shift from sugar to isoglucose usage. Rabobank believes that isoglucose production could take off, particularly in grain and starch-rich but sugar-poor countries such as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. At the same time, other regions in the EU are also set to captur...

July 2014

  1. Jul 30

    Rabobank Wine Quarterly Q3: Adapting to a changing consumer landscape

    With growth in mainstream demand for wine noticeably shifting towards new markets and consumers, the current challenge for wine companies is how to adapt to an evolving consumer landscape, according to the latest Wine Quarterly report from Rabobank. It appears that fortune favours the brave as market segmentation is ushering in a new wave of innovation in global wine styles, marketing and distribution. A consumer-centric approach will become key to drawing in—and remaining relevant to—new gen...
  2. Jul 28

    Rabobank Report: Significant potential for Tanzanian coffee industry, but serious challenges remain

    With proper investment and training Tanzania is well placed to achieve its potential in the global coffee markets. However, according to the latest report from Rabobank, Climbing Kilimanjaro: Tanzania's Future in Global Coffee serious governmental efforts are needed to overcome the country’s current stagnation in production and enable farmers to improve the quality of their beans. To address these issues, the Tanzanian government should work with the industry to create dedicated value chains.
  3. Jul 25

    Rabobank Pork Quarterly Report: Where to source pork is the question

    The global pork market is moving into record territory in Q3. Especially in the exporting countries impacted by the porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv), hog and pork prices will continue to break records in the remainder of Q3 and into Q4. In the non-impacted countries, this, plus the high prices for beef and poultry, will support bullish hog and pork prices. However, in the European Union (EU) and China, markets will improve seasonally but will not reach the highs experienced in other co...
  4. Jul 15

    US set to become urea self-sufficient on fertiliser capacity boom

    US nitrogen fertiliser capacity has boomed in recent years as natural gas costs have decreased. According to a new report from Rabobank – A Shale Tale: The aftermath of the US Nitrogen Fertiliser Boom - the US nitrogen fertiliser market is now reaching a point of saturation, as announced capacities are expected to come online in the next few years. Market saturation, increasing fixed and variable costs for production make further capacity additions in the short term unlikely. However, the rec...
  5. Jul 14

    America Becoming a “Nation of Suckers” as Mints Deflate U.S. Gum Sales in Market for Fresh Breath

    Americans are chewing a lot less gum these days, according to a new report from Rabobank – and it is mints, that are taking the “share of mouth”. The report, “A Nation of Suckers,” points out that the $4 billion U.S. gum market is down 10% in sales and a whopping 20% in volume in the last five years alone. Sales are falling across the board, from kid-friendly bubble gum to mainstream sugar-free chewing gum. Rabobank says the widespread exodus suggests it is an issue with the category itself,...
  6. Jul 11

    Rabobank Sugar Quarterly Q2: Small global deficit in 2014/15 to end four years of surplus

    The global sugar market has been trading sideways in the past three months, as prices have been confined in a range between USc 16.5/lb and USc 18.5/lb, according to Rabobank’s Sugar Quarterly Q2 2014. Brazil continues to send conflicting signals to the sugar market. While initial cane production estimates of 570 million tonnes and 32.8 million tonnes of sugar remain for the region, this is subject to revisions, depending on how the weather progresses in the coming months after a long dry per...