In 2015, turbulence will remain with uncertainty about the possible remergence of PEDv, the developments regarding African swine fever (ASF), the Russian ban and exchange rate developments across the globe.
“Driven by production growth after PEDv, Rabobank expects a further cooling down of markets and resulting price pressure in Q1 2015” says Albert Vernooij, Animal Protein analyst, Rabobank.
EU prospects remain weak for 1Q 2015, with continuing pressured consumption. The only positive signs are the drop of the value of the euro and the resuming negotiations of Russia with individual EU countries to partly reopen the market, both of which would support exports.
Brazil and China will experience a positive Q1. The Brazilian industry will be supported by positive domestic and export demand. In China, the declining sow herd will only be partly compensated by increasing sow productivity, resulting in pressured production which will support prices.
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