Headwinds for wine consumption in South-East Asia still dominate the outlook in the near term, however opportunities are nevertheless apparent, and some positive longer term fundamental drivers are present should the necessary catalysts set them in motion.
“The rapid economic development in recent years has been effective in elevating many more of the region's 622 million residents into the burgeoning middle class,” says Marc Soccio, Senior Analyst at Rabobank. “These budding consumers are still not very evenly distributed across this diverse region, but it is this economic dynamism, further supported by the youthful demographic profile of the region, that is widely regarded as the promise of South-East Asia as a market.”
The depreciation in the British pound and potential shock to the UK economy are cause for concern in the world’s largest wine import market, just as stronger growth in average wages was starting to resurrect growth in still wine consumption.
Global wine supply
The challenging 2016 harvests in Chile and Argentina have reduced global supplies of some lower-end commercial varietals, providing some relief to suppliers elsewhere in the world at this end of the market.
US wine imports
US wine imports trend upwards in the first three months of 2016. Bottled wine imports grew 5% in volume and value, and bulk wines, which had turned negative in 2015, returned to solid growth, rising by 18% in volume and 26% in value.
Inventories of European wine appear broadly in balance, as most regions have ample (but not excessive) supply.
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Francois Sonneville: Francois.Sonneville@rabobank.com, Europe, +44 20 78093811
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