Info
Published on: September 10, 2015
Social media pitch
The margin outlook for the global poultry industry is still strong. http://pr.co/p/002dhl
Summary
The margin outlook for the global poultry industry is still strong. The industry is benefiting from ongoing bullish market fundamentals, according to Rabobank’s latest Poultry Quarterly Q3 report. Supply is balanced in most regions, beef prices are high, feed costs are low. With China as the major exception, the industry is profitable in almost all major global regions.
Details

Avian influenza (AI) remains a major concern for the global industry, with new outbreaks in most regions in the world, except Australia and South America. However, the number of outbreaks has been lower in the previous months, and this offers the industry in these regions some time to recover.

“The performance in most regions is currently improving, but the industry should have optimal biosecurity as its first priority, as avian influenza pressure is still significant. Any new case can have a big impact on regional and global trade streams, as we have seen in the past months, in which Brazil and Thailand have taken further market share in global poultry trade from the US and China,” says Nan-Dirk Mulder, animal protein analyst at Rabobank.

Rabobank believes the outlook for late 2015 and 2016 is bullish, as feed prices are still expected to remain at low pricing levels, and global breeding stock supply will be very low in regions with AI-related import restrictions, such as China and South-East Asia. The expectation that China will face a shortage in poultry and pork supply next year could especially become a major swing factor for the global poultry industry. The expected further spread of AI to key US chicken production areas is a major wild card for the industry outlook in the second half of this year.

Regional outlook for the poultry industry

  • EU: Strong market conditions with healthy market balance and restrictive supply growth.
  • US: Strong margins despite avian influenza trade bans.
  • Brazil: Weak local economy leads to trading-down effect, lifting poultry consumption.
  • China: Some improvement in poultry markets due to increasing pork prices.
  • Russia: Improved performance due to lower feed costs and price support from high beef and pork supply.

For more information please contact the report’s author:

Nan-Dirk Mulder: nan-dirk.mulder@rabobank.com, Tel: +31 30 71 23822

For other information, please contact Rabobank press office:

Madelon.kaspers@rabobank.com, Tel: +31 6 10 88 72 44

For your social media ready version of this press release:

http://rabobank-food-agribusiness-research.pressdoc.com

www.rabobank.com/f&a

www.FAR.com

Follow us on Twitter:

@rabofoodagri

NOTE

  • The report/presentation attached is sent specifically to enable journalists to do their work, i.e. as the basis for an article or news report, or as preparation for a telephone or personal interview with a content expert. In line with good journalistic practice, a reference to the source would be appreciated
  • Please note that it is expressly forbidden to forward the attached report/presentation in any form to third parties, or to publish this report either partially or entirely on a website.
  • Rabobank has recently updated the distribution lists for Food & Agribusiness Research reports. If you have no interest in further receiving this information, please let us know and we will remove your email address promptly.