Markets in South-East Asia are calling out to be explored, as opportunities in the region lie beyond China and Japan. Meanwhile, the short South American harvests and the Brexit are leading developments in global wine supply and trade, according to the Rabobank Global Wine Quarterly Q3 2016.
Brazil features over 75 million hectares of underused pasturelands which could be turned into productive cropland. The country is a natural candidate to meet rising global demand for grains according to the Rabobank report ‘Build it and they will come; The impact of port expansion on Brazilian soybean production and exports’.
Global deliveries of milk have started to fall, while dairy markets are showing only modest demand growth. Despite upward movement in prices at the end of Q2 growing inventories will continue to overhang the market as the world works its way through the current glut, according to the Rabobank Global Dairy Quarterly Q2 2016.
China’s rising pork prices are again the centre of attention in the global pork market. China’s pork prices skyrocketed at the start of 2016, reaching an all-time high of over RMB 20 per kilogram. A combination of farmers’ losses and government measures to close down unsuitable farms led to destocking over the past two years, which also drove the Chinese sow herd size to a historic low, according to Rabobank report ‘What’s Happening in China’s Pork Market’.
The Rabobank global beef index ticked up in Q1 2016 after declining for much of 2015. However it shows signs of dropping again as softening prices in the US and Canada battle strengthening prices in Australia and Brazil, according to the Rabobank Global Beef Quarterly Q2 2016.
Robust demand growth in both food and feed sectors across the region has put the South-East Asian market at the top of the agenda for many global grain companies, according to Rabobank’s latest report ‘The Wheat is On; South-East Asia’s Wheat Demand is on the Rise’.
Bread may not be the first thing that springs to mind when thinking about online retail. However, sales of bakery and particularly fresh bread products are among the fastest growing areas for online grocery retailers. The rise of online bakery sales has profound implications for retailers, producers, and consumers alike, says the Rabobank ‘Online Bakery: Browsing for Bread’ report.
Today Rabobank releases its Global Poultry Quarterly Q2 2016 report which finds the return of the US in many global poultry markets is shaking up global trade streams, with other exporters starting to defend their market share via price concessions.
Rabobank today releases its ‘World Grains & Oilseeds Map’ as well as the ‘Grow With the Flow’ report looking at the current state of Global trade of gains & oilseeds. Global trade of all gains & oilseeds has grown by about 150 million tonnes in the last five years, exceeding the growth of the previous five years by more than 50%. However, given the significant decline in prices, the value of these flows has dropped by more than 15% in the same period to around USD 200 billion.
Many EU countries may follow in the footsteps of the US, where berries have become the largest fresh produce food retail category, ahead of major staples such as apples and oranges. Although it is unlikely that all EU member states will, the sky seems to be the limit in the continent’s fresh berry sector, according to Rabobank’s latest report ‘Burgeoning & Blossoming: The Bar is Raised in the Promising EU Berry Market’.
South America's beef exporters are set to increase exports by an estimated 11% in 2016. This increase is supported by favourable currency values, improved access to importing countries and increased availability of beef.
Strong price volatility in the grain & oilseed market, stagnating feed and animal protein demand in the EU, and the consolidation of global G&O traders have increased the pressure in the value chain. This has resulted in the geographical expansion of European compound feed players and the ongoing consolidation of the animal protein industry in the EU, according to Rabobank report Where Is the Upside in the European Grains-to-Pork Value Chains?: Leveraging Country Strengths.
The margin outlook for the global poultry industry is gradually improving after challenging conditions in Q4 2015, notably significant oversupply, according to Rabobank’s Poultry Quarterly Q1 2016. The main factors driving recovery are increasing demand, lower supply growth in key regions like the US, China, Thailand and Europe, and price support from recovering red meat markets.
The world must increase its usable water supply and effectively manage water demand. These are the key findings in a new report from Rabobank. The report “Agricultural Water – Free Flowing Markets Sustain Growth” focuses significant attention on water markets as a tool that has been proven to be effective at delivering water where it’s most valued. According to the research, markets are an important part of ensuring that the proper allocation of water can occur, and helping ensure that the ag...
The global pork market will remain weak in Q1 2016, followed by some—partly seasonal—improvement leading into Q2. Sufficient supply and modest demand development mean the Rabobank five-nation hog price index will bottom out in the coming months, at the lowest point since 2006, after a stronger-than-expected drop at the end of 2015, according to the Rabobank Global Pork Quarterly Q1 report.
The Argentine wine industry is finally breathing a sigh of relief, according to the most recent Rabobank Wine Quarterly report. High inflation, a strong peso and taxes on exports, has created significant hurdles for the Argentine wine industry over the past several years, but the new president took radical actions at the end of December 2015 which dramatically alter Argentina’s competitive positioning.
In Q4 2015, world sugar prices have continued to build on the recovery initiated at the end of August, with March futures occupying a range of USc 14.0/lb to USc 15.5 USc/lb for much of November and early December, according to the Rabobank Global Sugar Quarterly Q4 2015.
Looking back at the dairy sector in Q4 2015, we see international dairy commodity prices stabilising, but failing to show any real signs of recovery. Demand-side conditions remained characterised by improved growth in the US and the EU. Many emerging markets, however, are showing weakness in demand. Aggregate demand does appear to be expanding, but not enough to deal with recent supply volumes at anything more than bargain prices. Production growth slowed considerably in export regions, yet t...
Tight supply will support prices in 2016 as demand is expected to remain firm even though supply pressure is easing. China and the US will be the main import markets to watch in 2016—in particular the strength of demand, given high prices. According to Rabobank’s Global Beef Quarterly Q4 2015 report, Australia, Brazil, India and the US will be the main exporters to watch—in particular the supply of cattle and beef, in response to rebuilding pressures at different points in the cycle.
Excessive supply expansion has outstripped continued strong fundamentals—robust demand, ongoing low feed prices and relatively high competitive protein prices—in recent months, after multiple quarters of balanced supply/demand. This is pressuring producer profitability in most regions of the world and global chicken meat prices have dropped significantly, says the Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q4.
Key for the industry’s 2016 outlook is a rebalancing of supply to new market conditions. An impro...
Jonathan Goodstone / Naomi Lane
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About Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research
About Rabobank Group and Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory
Rabobank is a Netherlands based, international financial services provider operating on the basis of cooperative principles. It offers retail banking, wholesale banking, private banking, leasing and real estate services. As a cooperative bank, Rabobank puts customers’ interests first in its services. Rabobank is committed to being a leading customer-focused cooperative bank in the Netherlands and a leading food and agri bank worldwide with assets totalling at 670 billion euro. The organisation has approximately 52,000 employees worldwide and operates in 40 countries.
Rabobank is the unrivalled market leader in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands. Its international strategy Banking for Food is aimed at increasing the availability of food, improving the access to food, promoting healthy nutrition and enhancing the stability of the food industry through its international activities.
Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR) is Rabobank’s global F&A Knowledge Provider. FAR comprises a global team of more than 80 analysts that continuously accumulates knowledge in major F&A sectors, issues and trends.