Rabobank Mexico Agribusiness Outlook 2014: A positive year ahead but full of challenges

15 April — Mexico’s economic growth is gradually improving, but food consumption remains vulnerable to income and price effects, according to a report from Rabobank – Mexico Agribusiness Outlook 2014: A positive year but full of challenges. The Mexican economy is expected to recover gradually in 2014, after a slow 2013, with Rabobank forecasting 2.9% growth, mostly occurring during the second half of the year. However, sector-specific challenges will continue to affect agribusiness. Grain and oilseed pr...

April 2014

  1. Apr 14

    Rabobank Wine Quarterly: two strategies for South African growth

    Both bulk and bottled wine exports from South Africa (SA), enjoyed strong growth in 2013, according to the latest Wine Quarterly report from Rabobank. The weak rand, coupled with rising bulk wine prices in other wine-producing regions, made SA wine more competitive and attracted new buyers who were impressed by the quality they found. Overall exports increased 26% in 2013. However, challenges remain and bulk and bottled wine suppliers will require different strategies to navigate the new mark...
  2. Apr 07

    Rabobank: Chinese market to lead continued strong beef demand globally

    Market fundamentals remain very positive for the global beef industry, according to Rabobank’s Q1 Beef Quarterly report. Firm demand as well as further tightening supply due to drought-induced herd retention in the US and some adverse weather conditions in Brazil and Australia—the three main beef exporters—pushed prices up across the globe in Q1 2014. Combined with fluctuating exchange rates, these events have impacted competitive positions in export markets, with Brazil and Australia gaining...

March 2014

  1. Mar 28

    ​Rabobank Poultry Quarterly Q1: Grain prices stabilizing, margins strong but tightening

    With the notable exception of the US, bullish poultry market conditions are turning bearish due to recent grain price hikes caused by turmoil in Ukraine and El Niño-related worries, according to Rabobank's Poultry Quarterly Q1. Abrupt increases in feed prices (up 10%-15% on earlier expectations), avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in China and a weaker Asian economy are expected to affect margins in Q2.
  2. Mar 25

    Rabobank Report: PEDv set to cause significant shortfall in North American Hog Market

    Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) has impacted about 60% of the US breeding herd, 28% of the Mexican herd and is beginning to develop in Canada, according to Rabobank’s latest report This Little Piggy Cried P-E-D-v All the Way Home: Estimating the Impacts of PEDv in North America. If PEDv spreads in Canada and Mexico at the pace seen in the US, North American hog slaughter could decline by nearly 18.5 million hogs over 2014 and 2015 or 12.5% relative to 2013 levels. Overall US pork produ...
  3. Mar 24

    Rabobank: Africa – the new frontier for beer

    Rapid economic development, expanding populations and rising wages are set to propel Africa to being the fastest growing market for beer, according to a new report from Rabobank, Beer on the Frontier: Opportunities for Brewers in the African Continent. With developed economies still dealing with the fallout of the economic slowdown, and growth in the BRICs having disappointed, global brewers are set to explore the opportunities provided by Africa.
  4. Mar 21

    Rabobank Dairy Quarterly Q1: International prices to ease through 2014

    Rabobank expects an easing of global milk pricing from mid to late Q2 2014, according to its Q1 Dairy Quarterly report. Exportable supply rose strongly in Q4 2013 and is expected to continue into early 2014 as producers respond to improved margins through high milk prices and falling feed costs. A strong Northern Hemisphere production season, on the back of an exceptional season in the Southern Hemisphere, should generate more than enough exportable supply to exceed China’s extraordinary addi...
  5. Mar 17

    Rabobank Report: Internationalising Spanish wine – two strategies for growth

    An improvement in the Spanish wine industry’s productive structure and orientation to the international market is necessary for the country to remain globally competitive according to a recent report from Rabobank – La Mancha in the Middle. Recent EU support programmes have improved the efficiency in Spanish wine production, but oversupply remains an issue. There are two strategic options available to Spain to improve its competitive positioning - Spain must either increase production of inte...
  6. Mar 13

    Rabobank: Hybrid import and domestic agricultural development model to support China’s food demand

    A quadrupling in the world’s population in the past 100 years has required a fundamental change in soil and crop management to meet growing food demand globally. In China, the issue of food security is driving the development of a hybrid model and changing the way in which the region will feed itself in the long-term. China’s food security will ultimately rely on the professionalisation of its agricultural system through the infrastructure of research, education, and farm extension services, ...
  7. Mar 04

    Indonesia to establish itself as a top 3 global wheat importer in next five years

    Wheat consumption is on the rise in Indonesia, driven by economic growth and convenience. Wheat provides an economical and nutritious alternative to rice, and increased consumption could help Indonesia resolve its self-sufficiency target for paddy according to Rabobank’s latest report – The Wheat Opportunity: Growing Indonesian Consumption Driving Imports and Investment. Given the current consumption rate, Indonesia could import more than 10 million tonnes per year in the coming five years, p...

February 2014

  1. Feb 20

    Rabobank Fertiliser Quarterly Q1: 2014 outlook bearish

    Rabobank are bearish on global fertiliser pricing, according to its Q1 Fertiliser Quarterly report. In urea, a temporary imbalance between supply and demand could put further temporary upward pressure on prices. Phosphate demand in Q1 2014 is finding support from speculative buying from the US and Brazil, with prices finding additional support from elevated sulphur prices. However, at the end of this quarter, prices for both phosphates and urea could fall to levels seen before the recent pri...
  2. Feb 18

    Rabobank Report: Unlocking Poland’s Dairy Potential

    The dairy industry in Poland provides plenty of investment opportunities to those players who have the right strategy, according to a recent report from Rabobank – Poles Apart. While production has increased at farm level, further investment is needed to realise Poland’s full potential after the removal of production quotas in 2015. At the processor level, consolidation and improvements in efficiency would provide opportunities to tap into domestic and export markets. At the consumer level, d...
  3. Feb 17

    Rabobank: High crop production set to challenge Brazil’s infrastructure again

    Rabobank expects another year of record production for several of Brazil’s major agricultural crops in 2014, including soybeans and, depending on weather developments, sugarcane. However, according to a recent research note, international prices for many of Brazil’s agricultural commodities fell in 2013 and could decline further in 2014. Infrastructure and logistics remains a key point of concern for the country for 2014, particularly for the export market. With production and export volumes ...
  4. Feb 11

    Rabobank: New Chinese agricultural policy driving production scale and consumption

    ​Chinese agriculture has grown tremendously over the past thirty-five years and with the new leadership in 2012 and a flurry of new government policies, agriculture is expected to experience even faster growth in the coming decade. According to a recent report from Rabobank – New Chinese Agricultural Policy – new policy adjustments will address balancing the pace of urban and rural development, usher the adoption of mechanisation and new technology in the agricultural system, and facilitate t...
  5. Feb 06

    Rabobank Wine Quarterly Q4: Challenges remain for global industry, but brighter 2014 anticipated for the UK wine market

    The miserable economic environment in the key UK market has left the world’s winemakers with little reason for optimism in recent years, as falling real wage growth has driven down consumption. However, according to Rabobank’s Q4 Wine quarterly, the UK’s improving economic fundamentals, combined with a recovery in the global harvest, should provide some relief in 2014.